With Bitcoin price stalling above a key resistance level of $65,000, experts believe that the seven-month consolidation could be coming to an end. There are multiple reasons why the past week’s rally could be a precursor move that restarts the BTC bull run that began in 2023.
In this CoinGape article, let’s explore why experts believe Bitcoin is edging closer to a bull run.
3 Reasons Why BTC Price Will Kickstart Bull Run in October: Experts
One of the key reasons why BTC price could kickstart a bull run is the similarity between October 2024 and 2023 moves. Let’s explore the eerie similarities that hint at a massive rally for Bitcoin in October.
Bitcoin’s Similar Price Action
Vettle Lund, senior analyst at K33 Research, posted to X about how this logic applies to the rest of the crypto market. Referencing the CME premium and stale funding rates, Lunde added that the “current [crypto] market structure closely resembles the market structure exactly one year ago.”
The key difference, he adds, is the ETH basis, which follows BTC, and that the futures traders are more aggressive, leading to a sharp move in perpetuals’ open interest.
Bitcoin & Ethereum: CME Basis, Funding Rate, Open Interest
Halving & Elections Impact on BTC
Over the past 12 years, Bitcoin has experienced four halvings and elections. Intuito, a popular crypto analyst, showcases that after halving BTC price tends to stall. But post-elections, the digital asset goes parabolic, aka kickstarts bull run.
With Trump taking a lead in the US presidential elections, crypto markets could go parabolic on November 5, the result day.
Intuito also makes a clear distinction of how previous bull runs began after flipping the previous ATHs into support levels. As of October 16, Bitcoin is only 8.52% away from its ATH.
Bitcoin Price vs. Halvings vs. Elections
Bitcoin’s Seasonality Hints It is Bull Season
Unlike in the past, despite volatility returning to Bitcoin, the estimated leverage ratio remains low, around 32%. Historically, a spike above 55% would suggest that the leverage is high and often leads to massive liquidations and cascading that often leads to steep double-digit corrections.
According to on-chain analyst, Axel Adler Jr. “leverage volume on the top three exchanges stands at 32%. A rise above 55% could trigger a cascade of liquidations.”
BTC Estimated Leverage Ratio
Overall, the outlook for BTC price remains largely bullish on the high time frame horizon. This tone on the lower time frame was uncertain, but has slowly shifted to being bullish. Let’s explore how the recent Bitcoin price moves have influenced this shift.
Bitcoin Price Analysis Hints Shifting Allegiances Favoring Buyers
The daily Bitcoin chart shows the recent production of higher lows and higher high. This development denotes a shift in market structure favoring bulls. Due to this, the Bitcoin price prediction now targets $70,000, a key psychological level.
Moreover, BTC is attempting to overcome the declining trend line connecting the lower highs formed since the all-time high of $73,805. If successful, BTC could lead to a retest of $70,000 followed by a potential retest of $63,000 support level. A bounce from $62K could propel BTC beyond the current all-time high (ATH) of $73,805 and set up a new one.
On the other hand, if BTC price fails to hold the $65,000 support level, it could signal that BTC will likely reverse. Such an outlook could see Bitcoin slipping back to the lower end of the ongoing consolidation.
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