Donald Trump, the former US president’s chances of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election have surged on Polymarket, a prediction market platform. As per Polymarket, the probability of Trump winning the election stands at 60.1%, while that of Vice President Kamala Harris is at 39.8%.
This marked difference is a change from earlier this month when both candidates were nearly equal in their scores. The sudden increase in the odds of Trump to win has gathered much attention with people speculating that it could have been due to a few big bets placed by a few pro-Trump people in the market.
Surge in Donald Trump’s Odds Raises Concerns
Recent activity on Polymarket has raised concerns that Donald Trump’s increasing odds could be because of a few big spenders. According to reports, the four users Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie have placed more than $25 million in bets for Trump.
These large trades are thought to have influenced the market to adjust the odds of Donald Trump’s victory upwards drastically.
Such accounts have allegedly been operational in the last few weeks and among them Fredi9999 seems to have been very active. Political betting enthusiast Domer has stated that Fredi has been making large deposits from cryptocurrency exchange Kraken and has been consistently backing Trump across multiple markets. This activity has not elude the notice of the market and some experts have opined that this might be a case of market manipulation.
Experts Question Market Manipulation
This has created a lot of controversy as the large bets on Polymarket have created an impression of the platform’s dishonesty. Domer, a pseudonymous political bettor, noted that these pro-Trump accounts may be strategically depositing their funds to sway the odds in Trump’s favor.
Domer said that such users seem to collude with each other, taking large amounts of money and betting it on the former US president Trump and increasing the chances of his victory. In one example, a bet on Trump to win the popular vote increased the chances from 26% to 39% in just a few hours.
ETF Store president Nate Geraci also pointed to the Polymarket activity, stating that such large positions could imply that someone is trying to give the impression of momentum for Trump. He cited crypto investor Adam Cochran who said that this rise in betting in a prediction market could be to provide Trump with a reason to cry foul and claim that the election was rigged if he loses. Cochran, a Republican voter who backs Harris, added that such betting odds might be employed to cast doubt on the election results in the event of Trump’s loss.
Bitcoin PAC Supports Trump as US Election Approaches
The increase in former US president Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidency coincides with the Bitcoin Voters PAC, a pro-Bitcoin PAC, releasing a campaign ad in support of Trump.
The ad, now airing in Pennsylvania, underlines the increasing popularity of the former president among the cryptocommunity.
At the same time, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, an avid Trump supporter, emphasized Trump’s lead on Polymarket, tweeting on X (previously Twitter) that prediction markets are ‘more accurate than polls since real money is at stake.’ This sentiment is in line with many of the pro-Trump commentators who have claimed that prediction markets are more accurate than polls.
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