- For the 12-team CFP, chaos isn’t a pit. It’s a ladder. Who’s ready to climb?
- SEC, Big Ten are best positioned for the most qualifiers, but several ACC, Big 12 teams remain in the hunt.
- How’s this for chaos: Georgia is ranked No. 1 by the CFP after November, but doesn’t qualify for SEC championship game
One of the most conniving characters in modern television once said that chaos isn’t a pit. Chaos is a ladder.
Littlefinger would’ve enjoyed this 12-team College Football Playoff era.
Up you climb, Indiana.
Grab a rung, Army.
Don’t you dare get comfortable, Oregon, because the higher you climb, the more it hurts if you fall.
Oh, and just as a reminder: Spoiler alert, the conniving Littlefinger got himself killed off before the end of “Game of Thrones.”
So, yeah, chaos is both a pit and a ladder.
Who’s ready to climb and least likely to fall in the 12-team CFP? Let’s set the table for the season’s final month with this view of the chess board and how the weeks leading up to Selection Sunday might become particularly chaotic.
ACC
Frontrunners: Miami, Clemson
Also in playoff contention: Pittsburgh, SMU
Chaos scenario: Miami, Clemson and SMU win out before the ACC championship game. In that situation, Miami becomes 12-0, and Clemson and SMU are 11-1, each with a non-conference loss. Tiebreakers would determine the title game matchup. Let’s say the Hurricanes lose in that ACC championship, so you’ve got Miami, Clemson and SMU each with one loss. Does the committee make room for all three? Two? One?
Best guess: While positioned for anywhere from one to three bids, split the difference. I predict two qualifiers, with Miami positioned best for qualification.
Big Ten
Frontrunner: Oregon
Also in playoff contention: Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana
Chaos scenario: Oregon gets upset once in November. Ohio State beats Penn State and Indiana in November clashes. All four go 11-1, with a single conference loss apiece by the end of the regular season. The committee will struggle to find room for all four.
Best guess: If Ohio State loses to Penn State and Indiana, then it’s easy: The Buckeyes become the odd-man out. If OSU splits with those two teams, then the team that loses to the Buckeyes becomes vulnerable. If Ohio State beats both Penn State and Indiana, then the committee will face a tough choice between the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers, and it could boil down to comparing margin of defeat against the Buckeyes..
I predict three qualifiers, with Oregon best positioned for qualification.
Big 12
Frontrunners: Brigham Young, Iowa State
Also in playoff contention: Kansas State, Colorado
Chaos scenario: Kansas State beats Iowa State in November to earn a Big 12 championship game spot opposite BYU, then hands the Cougars their first defeat to capture the auto bid. That leaves ISU and BYU with just a single defeat each to K-State, and neither played each other.
Best guess: Of the Power Four conferences, the Big 12 is most vulnerable to being limited to one bid. BYU and Iowa State advancing into the Big 12 championship game with undefeated records would give the conference its best shot at multiple bids.
I predict one qualifier, with BYU best positioned for qualification.
SEC
Frontrunners: Georgia, Texas A&M
Also in playoff contention: Texas, Tennessee, LSU, Alabama, Ole Miss
Chaos scenarios: Now, we’re entering especially murky waters. The SEC retains seven playoff contenders. In one chaos scenario, Georgia, Texas, Texas A&M, Tennessee, Ole Miss and the winner of the Alabama-LSU game on Nov. 9 all finish 10-2. Six teams with the same record. Realistically, the playoff doesn’t house room for six SEC qualifiers. Good luck sorting out that mess.
In another bizarre scenario, Texas A&M, LSU and Georgia go undefeated in November. Georgia almost certainly would be ranked highest in the CFP rankings – perhaps as high as No. 1 or No. 2 – but the Aggies would be undefeated in SEC play, while LSU and Georgia suffered one conference loss apiece. SEC championship tiebreakers would favor LSU. The Tigers would head to Atlanta for the conference championship game, while Georgia sits home, ineligible for a first-round playoff bye.
Best guess: Gosh, how to make sense of this? Let’s revisit after Nov. 9, when Alabama-LSU and Georgia-Ole Miss play. That day has the potential to add clarity to the playoff race … or make the situation even more chaotic.
I predict four qualifiers, with Georgia and Texas A&M positioned best for qualification.
Group of Five
Frontrunner: Boise State
Also in playoff contention: Army, UNLV, Navy, Memphis, Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulane
Chaos scenario: Colorado State, which suffered three non-conference losses, goes undefeated in Mountain West play and wins the conference championship. That probably would push the Group of Five bid in the direction of the American or the Sun Belt champion.
Best guess: Boise State handles its business. I predict one qualifier: the Mountain West champion.
Independent
In playoff contention: Notre Dame
Chaos scenario: The Irish suffer a second loss. So, they’re out, right? Hold on: Texas A&M wins the SEC championship. What now? Although Notre Dame would have a squishy résumé, it would boast a road win against the SEC’s champ.
Best guess: The Irish win out and qualify as an at-large selection.
Best-guess total tally for the 12-team field: Four SEC, three Big Ten, two ACC, one Big 12, one Group of Five, one independent.
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