A key sequence in the fourth quarter sums up the state of play whenever No. 3 Penn State meets No. 4 Ohio State: close, but not quite.
The Nittany Lions came up short against the Buckeyes for the eighth time in a row in this series, losing 20-13 after failing to score on four plays right on the goal line with roughly five minutes left. For all of the obvious improvements the offense has made under new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, sketchy play calling in this key spot likely dooms the Nittany Lions’ chances of playing for the Big Ten championship.
All isn’t lost. For weeks, Penn State has been seen as one of the safest bets to land in the College Football Playoff, albeit with an at-large bid. That remains highly probable given the team’s single loss and smooth schedule the rest of November.
But this was a game the program had to have and one that the Nittany Lions easily could’ve had, though that doesn’t lessen the sting of another loss to Ohio State.
Needing a win in one of college football’s most hostile road environments to stay on track for a rematch with Oregon in early December, the Buckeyes rebounded from some early errors by quarterback Will Howard to deliver one of the best wins of the regular season in the Bowl Subdivision.
That defensive stand in the fourth quarter comes one week after pulling off another key red-zone stop in a narrow win against Nebraska. In hindsight, that 21-17 victory seems influenced by the Cornhuskers’ place between the road trips to No. 1 Oregon and State College.
What happened after forcing a Drew Allar incompletion might be even more impressive. Backed up on their own end zone, the Buckeyes ran out the clock by rushing for 59 yards in 10 plays to seal the win. That’s a statement drive for both teams.
When both sides of the ball are working in concert — something that was missing against the Ducks — you can see why Ohio State might be the best team in the Big Ten and a favorite for the national championship.
And as the Buckeyes get set to rise in the US LBM Coaches Poll, the Nittany Lions are left in a state of embarrassment. Not because they lost; that’s nothing new for Penn State or coach James Franklin. It’s how this happened with the game on the line: with a failed series of plays on offense and a give-up sequence on defense.
You’d shake your head if you hadn’t seen it before, again and again. This key Big Ten matchup leads Saturday’s biggest winners and losers:
Winners
The Big Ten
Ohio State’s win is really good news for the Big Ten. Should PSU take care of business the rest of the way, the league is assured of getting at least three teams in the playoff and maybe four, should No. 13 Indiana continue to surge up the rankings under new coach Curt Cignetti. While that math probably would’ve remained the same had the Buckeyes lost — they would’ve had two road losses to two of the best teams in the country — Saturday’s result is the best possible outcome for the conference.
Indiana
The most surprising success story in the Power Four unlocked another new achievement. After spotting Michigan State a 10-0 lead, the Hoosiers rolled off 47 unanswered points to reach 9-0 for the first time in program history. After missing last weekend with a thumb injury, quarterback Kurtis Rourke completed 19 of 29 attempts for 263 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. To put this incredible start with Cignetti at the controls into perspective, keep in mind that Indiana was picked 17th, one spot off the bottom, in the Big Ten’s preseason media poll.
Miami
For the fourth time this season, No. 5 Miami flirted with disaster before pulling away to remain unbeaten. This time, Duke wobbled the Hurricanes with a 28-3 run bridging the first and second halves to take a 28-17 lead with 10 minutes left in the third quarter. The response was impressive: Cam Ward threw three touchdowns and the Hurricanes scored five times overall down the stretch to win 53-31. There’s an aspect of this win that underscores some of the skepticism over Miami’s viability as a true national championship contender. But let’s give the Hurricanes some credit: Other contenders have fallen by the wayside or being knocked off as favorites while Miami continues to march toward the program’s most successful regular season in decades.
SMU
It was a big night for No. 20 SMU. First, the Mustangs jumped all over No. 17 Pittsburgh in a 48-25 win that knocks the Panthers from the ranks of the unbeaten. After surviving against Duke last Saturday despite committing six turnovers, SMU made things easier with a 24-point second quarter to take a 31-3 lead into the break. More good news came in the form of No. 8 Clemson’s loss at home to Louisville, leaving the Hurricanes and Mustangs as the only teams still perfect in ACC play. If not for Indiana, what coach Rhett Lashlee and the Mustangs are doing against all the odds as new members of the Power Four would be the most incredible story of the season.
Iowa
If you’re standing, please sit down. If you’re drinking anything, please swallow before continuing. Done? Well, Iowa followed up last week’s 40-point explosion against Northwestern by racking up 329 rushing yards in a 42-10 blowout of Wisconsin. In the past three meetings in this rivalry, the Hawkeyes gained just 156, 146 and 237 yards. As anyone familiar with the program’s recent history would say: Wow. This offense has been extremely productive since starting October with a 35-7 loss to Ohio State. In addition to these past two wins, the Hawkeyes scored 40 points in a victory against Washington on Oct. 12. The program hadn’t scored 40 or more points three times in a season since 2017.
Vanderbilt
Beating Auburn 17-7 will send Vanderbilt to bowl play for the first time since 2018 and raises the odds of the program’s first winning finish since 2013, the last of James Franklin’s three seasons with the Commodores. Driven by an influx of transfers from New Mexico State, namely quarterback Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt has already tripled last year’s win total with games against South Carolina, No. 16 LSU and No. 7 Tennessee to end the regular season.
Losers
Iowa State
Living on the edge finally caught up to No. 10 Iowa State. After escaping with a 38-35 win last Saturday against Central Florida, the Cyclones took the lead with two minutes left but were unable to get a late defensive stop and lost 23-22 to Texas Tech. The loss prevents Iowa State from reaching 8-0 for the first time in program history. With No. 12 Brigham Young unbeaten and Colorado holding just one loss in conference play, the Cyclones now need to run the table to ensure a spot in the Big 12 championship game and the possibility of a guaranteed playoff berth.
Clemson
This is a stunner: Clemson had been on an absolute tear after losing to No. 2 Georgia in the season opener but laid an egg at home against Louisville, losing 33-21 and ceding control of the ACC race to Miami and SMU. An offense that had scored at least 40 points in five of the past six went missing against the Cardinals before a couple late scores and looking like the offenses that sputtered amid the program’s post-Trevor Lawrence decline. There is still time for Clemson to make the playoff by winning the ACC — SMU needs to lose at least once, though — but this was a confidence-shaking performance that could cast the Tigers out of the at-large picture.
Texas A&M
One week after beating LSU, No. 11 A&M came thudding back to reality with a 44-20 loss at South Carolina. While not an eliminator in the SEC or playoff race, the loss shows how presumptuous it was to assume the Aggies would just mosey into the season finale against No. 6 Texas with just one loss. In a reverse of the win against the Tigers, this one would see the Gamecocks pull away behind a physical running game that pummeled the Aggies into submission in the fourth quarter. USC had a pair of 100-yard backs, led by Raheim Sanders’ 144 yards on 7.2 yards per carry, and did a nice job bottling up A&M quarterback Marcel Reed.
Kansas State
It was a bloody Saturday for two of the top contenders in the Big 12. Not long after ISU fell to Texas Tech, No. 15 Kansas State suffered an absolutely inexplicable 24-19 loss against a Houston team still in the early stages of a rebuild behind first-year coach Willie Fritz. While the Cougars have played better in conference play and Fritz has a reputation for being one of the best builders in the country, this loss is damaging to the Wildcats’ chances of reaching the Big 12 championship game. To do so, they’d have to win out, beating the Cyclones along the way to take that head-to-head tiebreaker, and have Colorado lose at least once against Texas Tech, Utah, Kansas and Oklahoma State. The bigger cost is how this could be what eliminates Kansas State from at-large contention.
Arkansas
No. 18 Mississippi’s emphatic 63-31 rout of Arkansas saw record-setting performances from quarterback Jaxson Dart and wide receiver Jordan Watkins. Dart had a school-record 515 yards and tied the school record with six touchdown passes. With star Tre Harris sidelined, Watkins delivered school records with 254 yards and five scores. After a rocky month-plus, the Rebels’ win that should play very well with the selection committee come Tuesday night. But just as the victory puts the Rebels back on track, the lopsided loss at home means serious trouble for Arkansas and coach Sam Pittman. While the Razorbacks had won two of three to rise into the top half of the SEC standings, they’ve now dropped three in a row at home. This inability to take advantage of the friendly confines could cap Arkansas at six wins, which might not be enough to save Pittman’s job.
Virginia Tech
This season has not unfolded as planned for a team expected to contend for the Top 25. Playing at Syracuse, Virginia Tech took a 21-3 lead midway through the third quarter, went down 24-21 under a minute into the fourth, regained a 31-24 lead, allowed the Orange to tie the game with 29 seconds left and then lost 38-31 in overtime. Tech lost despite running for 249 yards, the program’s most in a loss since going for 260 yards in a loss to the Orange in 2021.
Memphis
Losing 44-36 to an undermanned Texas-San Antonio team is a fatal blow for the Tigers’ already slim odds of representing the Group of Five in the playoff. Now with two losses in American Athletic play, Memphis will need major chaos at the top of the standings to earn a spot in the conference championship game. Given that Memphis started the year as a Group of Five favorite, to not even play for the AAC crown is a major letdown. Playing with a roster ravaged by injuries, including the loss of three starting offensive linemen, the Roadrunners put up 408 yards of offense and took advantage of a plus-two edge in turnovers.
(New information was added to this story.)
