Uncertainty encapsulates crypto markets as Bitcoin (BTC) hovers above $60K. While some altcoins are defying this trend and rallying, others await BTC’s signal. The Iran-Israel war has pushed investors to be extra cautious since it triggered a double-digit crash earlier this week. In this article, CoinGape explores what’s next for Bitcoin price if there’s more pain ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
US Nonfarm Payrolls Likely to Crash Bitcoin Price
As discussed in a previous article, the seven-month Bitcoin’s seven-month consolidation has created local bottoms or reversals in the first week of the month and local tops in the third week. Going by this logic, the September 27 swing high of $66,449 was the short-term local top. After this swing high, BTC price crashed 10% and is now attempting a reversal. Investors can expect another local top could form for BTC between October 7 and 10.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
This short-term Bitcoin price rally is the dead cat bounce that investors should be aware of, especially if Bitcoin shows weakness around the critical resistance level of $65K. A failure to flip the said barrier into support could trap impatient and early bulls when there is a crash.
Another reason for expecting this dead cat bounce for BTC is the geopolitical tensions due to the Iran-Israel war. Hence, Bitcoin price forecast hints at a slim chance of recovery. Therefore, a short-term uptrend that fails to overcome $65K could lead to another correction.
How Nonfarm Payrolls Affect BTC?
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is an important macroeconomic event that could induce massive volatility into the crypto markets albeit for the short-term. The jobs data for September is 254K and is higher than expectations of 140K, it could induce a risk-on scenario, causing Bitcoin and other top altcoins to surge higher in the short-term.
Although NFP data showed a positive surprise, the unemployment rate has come in at 4.1%, lower than expectations of 4.2%. This outlook puts pressure on Fed to keep interest rates higher and prevents rate cuts. It also strengthens the dollar and could negatively impact risk-on assets.
BTC Price Forecast: No Optimism Yet
The four-hour Bitcoin price chart does not show clear signs of optimism as it trades under the $61.8K resistance level. Investors can expect this slow consolidation between the $61.8K to $60.3K barriers to continue.
The hotter-than-expected NFP data could catalyze a bounce off the $60K hurdle, but as long as the $65K resistance level is not overcome, the chances of a sustained uptrend are unlikely. Investors can expect a continuation of the downtrend. A breakdown of the $60.3K support level should see a swift 4% to 5% correction to the next key support areas at $57.9K to $57.2K.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
Popular analyst CryptoCapo believes that BTC’s ongoing consolidation resembles Bitcoin’s March 2020 price action and could ultimately resolve to the downside. He asked the investors to “stay safe.”
Bitcoin Price Chart
On the other hand, overcoming the $61.8K hurdle would only put Bitcoin before another resistance zone, extending from $63.4K to $65K. If BTC bulls manage to flip the $65K hurdle, it will suggest a strong buying pressure and would propel the pioneer crypto to $70K.
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