With Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential odds rising, speculation is building over the future of US SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Pro-XRP lawyer and online commentator MetaLawMan recently outlined possible scenarios for Gensler if Trump takes office.
The lawyer, known for his analysis on regulatory matters, presented potential paths Gensler might take under a Trump administration.
Gary Gensler’s Possible Resignation or Removal
MetaLawMan indicated that, traditionally, agency heads resign when a new president is inaugurated. “The normal move is option #1,” MetaLawMan posted, referring to the expectation that Gensler may follow the precedent set by former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton, who resigned shortly after President Joe Biden assumed office in 2020. This would allow a Trump administration to appoint a new SEC Chair aligned with its policy stance.
If Gensler does not voluntarily resign, MetaLawMan suggested Trump could request his resignation on Day 1. Should Gensler comply, this option would streamline the transition and minimize any disruption at the US SEC. However, if Gary Gensler chooses to stay, Trump could potentially reassign him to a non-chair role within the SEC, although such a decision would require legal and procedural justification.
One possible scenario involves Trump firing Gensler if he refuses to resign. This outcome could result in a legal battle if Gensler challenges his dismissal in court. MetaLawMan noted, “If Gensler chooses option #5, he would likely lose in court,” though the process could extend over months. No Supreme Court ruling exists specifically addressing the president’s right to remove an SEC Commissioner, which could lead to significant legal debates. If Gensler pursued this route, it could set a legal precedent and cause delays within the SEC during a critical period of regulatory adjustments.
Speculations on US SEC Chair Career Path
As discussions around his potential departure intensify, some commentators speculate on where Gensler might move next if he steps down. According to MetaLawMan, many expect Gary Gensler could transition into prominent roles in academia or international institutions, such as the Council on Foreign Relations or the International Monetary Fund.
Observers also consider the possibility of Gensler joining corporate boards or taking leadership roles within the private sector, given his regulatory experience and political connections.
Analysts suggest that Gensler’s extensive experience and knowledge of financial regulations make him a valuable candidate for institutions focusing on global economic policy. Others raised concerns that future Democratic administrations might consider him for positions like Treasury Secretary or Federal Reserve Chairman, especially if he seeks to influence policy in areas like digital asset regulation.
Donald Trump’s Increasing Odds on Polymarket
Donald Trump’s rising odds of winning the 2024 election are evident across decentralized blockchain-based betting platforms. On Polymarket, a large investor, often called a “whale,” has reportedly committed over $7 million in support of Trump, leading to an increase in Donald Trump’s odds to over 66.7 over Kamala Harris’s 33.4%.
With significant sums backing Trump on such platforms, some commentators argue that decentralized prediction markets may offer a more immediate reflection of voter sentiment than traditional polls.
Concurrently, in a recent podcast, Howard Lutnick, CEO of Professional Capital Management, highlighted how Trump’s economic policies fostered job growth and protected U.S. industries. “His America First policy helped attain 3% GDP growth and wage increases,” Lutnick noted, contrasting this with what he described as inflationary effects under current Democratic policies.
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